What does a theory of change illustrate?

A theory of change is a comprehensive framework that outlines how and why a desired change is anticipated to occur within a specific context. It goes beyond simply listing activities or outcomes; it explains the causal relationships between various elements of a program. This involves identifying the inputs, activities, outputs, and the expected short-term, intermediate, and long-term outcomes, as well as the assumptions that underpin the causal pathways.

The strength of a theory of change lies in its ability to articulate the rationale behind the proposed interventions, helping stakeholders understand the connection between actions taken and the changes hoped to be achieved. It provides clarity and guidance in designing, implementing, and evaluating programs, ensuring alignment among all involved in the initiative.

While the outcomes of a program, the implementation process, and participant characteristics might be components or considerations within a theory of change, they do not encapsulate its primary function, which is to explicate the mechanisms of change leading to the desired impact. Therefore, focusing on how and why change is expected to happen captures the essence of what a theory of change illustrates.